Well for those of you following the great drama that is the Saint John River valley knows all to well what can happen in flood season.
Brief recap for those that don't - like any river valley that has 3+ dams on it, the power companies try to keep as much water as they can, until it's almost too late. End result is flooding typically worse than if the dams weren't there.
1973 was a bad year for Fredericton lower areas.
1993+1994 were pretty high years as well
2005 was another really high year.
My house is in Lower Saint Mary's, just off the PMB, though most of you know that.
2005 was a bad year where we ended up surrounded, on our island for 5 days. It wasn't something few could plan for, river watch wasn't in full swing and they'd been expecting the flood the next week, not the middle of the same week they were doing calculations (props to Mother Nature and NB Power for that one).
This year, with plenty of pre-planning we thought we were prepared.... Saturday waters were receding and we were able to briefly get out, I was planning to return to work today. Heh, Mother Nature though art a cruel mistress, are you somehow related to that fella named Murphy? If you are, give a Roshambo for me at the next family picnic....
So in 2005 the water was approximately 8 ft from the front of my house, not yet in the basement, and luckily at that point it receded. Currently the water is 12ft from the front of the house, the water is supposed to rise about 40cm today so that means anywhere from 3-5ft closer.
Now before people cry "the river isn't rising that much." First, you do know about the underground river right? The environmental staff at the EMO sure didn't. EMO, that's such a funny acronym... anyways.
So yes, under most of the Saint John River there is an underground river, the pond near my house connects to this underground river, as a pressure outlet type of thing, so the heavier the SJ river is, the more pressure, Ice is worse than water, but right now it's just water.
So when the water rises in the SJ, it causes pressure underneath, so a typical river increase here means about 1.5-1.8 increase over the sod field. So usually before the SJ swells we've already begun to flood, but we also see the levels level off and recede before the banks do as well. Now... should the flood water of both meet - then most of down town (on both sides of the river) is screwed, this happened in 1973.
Needless to say, anyone that wants to come visit, bring a boat, you can paddle right up on the front lawn, down to McMinniman Court, or even the other way round.
It's a good area for those moving here, high flooding isn't the norm.... and when it comes to insurance purposes it's never called a flood, it's called a drain/sewer backup ;)
Luckily we haven't lost power/phone yet - but needless to say Pizza Hut and the Dip aren't equipped with zodiac's for delivery ;)
It's MY Island!
Pics to follow to illustrate how fast the water can come up.